Blogs / Analysis [Analysis Blog]

Betting with a Moving Kelly Ratio

The Kelly ratio gives the optimal percentage of an investor’s wealth to bet in order to maximize his long term growth rate. It was originally developed for betting with known odds and win ratios, for games such as blackjack and horse betting. However, it has its uses in investments as well. For a stock instrument, [...]

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Random Walks

Introduction The random walk hypothesis states that stock market prices evolve according to a stochastic process, preventing the prediction of future stock market movements.  The concept follows from the weak version of the efficient-market hypothesis, which asserts that future stock market movements are not correlated with past movements.  In other words, the movement of share [...]

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Turtle Breakout Trading Strategy Simulation

Introduction The “turtles” are a group of traders in the 1980's formed by Richard Dennis and William Eckhardt to study whether trading ability is determined by nature or nurture. The group’s story is covered in many books such as Market Wizards by Jack D. Schwager, Way of the Turtle by Curtis Faith (an original turtle), [...]

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Tracking Analyst Optimism in Palantir Finance

We examine an interesting study recently published in the April 2010 McKinsey Quarterly.  The study can be found here (registration required), and the results are further discussed here.  This study examines a phenomenon known as “optimism bias” – the tendency of analysts predicting company performance to over-estimate how well a company will perform.   Analysts are [...]

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Using the VIX as a Market Signal

The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, or VIX, is often cited as a market-timing indicator.  Traders have created a variety of strategies to exploit supposed correlations between this “fear index” and future market returns.  Using Palantir Finance, we can effortlessly examine the exact nature of these correlations to make more informed trading decisions.  The [...]

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