Much has been made recently of green shoots in the economy. Optimists point to the fact that the rate of decline – the ubiquitous “second derivative” – has turned positive, signaling that the economy is contracting at a slower rate. Pessimists would prefer to see a positive first derivative before accumulating risky assets. In this [...]
The Taylor rule is a method for determining how much the Fed should raise or lower rates based on inflation and the difference between real and potential GDP (also known as the output gap). The underlying premise is that the Fed raises interest rates to curb high inflation and lowers interest rates to spur a [...]
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